Manfred Paier Scientist, Deputy Head of Innovation Dynamics and Modelling, Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Wien, Austria Title: Exploring Regional Twin Transition Pathways with an Empirical Agent-Based Model Abstract: The twin transition—an integrated approach to digitalization and green innovation—is central to the European Union’s strategy for addressing climate change while fostering economic competitiveness. However, European regions exhibit significant heterogeneity in innovation capacities, industry structures, and institutional frameworks, affecting their ability to navigate this transition effectively. This ongoing project explores regional twin transition pathways by analysing the transformation of technological knowledge bases using an empirical agent-based model (ABM). We employ an ABM that simulates knowledge creation processes in 292 NUTS2 regions across Europe. The model represents 70,000 heterogeneous agents, characterized by sectoral affiliations, R&D intensities, and technological endowments, and specifies agent interactions for learning and knowledge exchange. It examines the mechanisms through which regions advance toward green and digital specialization, identifying pathways such as related and unrelated diversification, upgrading, and importation. By incorporating spatial microsimulation techniques and patent data from 2015–2020, we quantify regional specializations in green and digital technologies, allowing us to assess the impact of pre-existing capabilities on transition trajectories. First results indicate that regions with established green and digital knowledge bases predominantly follow related diversification, reinforcing existing expertise. Conversely, less technologically advanced regions rely on importation and unrelated diversification, facing greater structural challenges in transitioning toward twin specialization. Spatial spillover effects further influence transition dynamics, with advanced regions in Germany, Scandinavia, and Southern France leading the twin transition, while Eastern and South-Eastern European regions exhibit lagging trends. These findings highlight the evolutionary nature of technological transitions and the role of regional characteristics in shaping twin transition pathways. Future research will extend the model to assess policy interventions fostering interregional collaboration and diversification, providing insights for targeted innovation strategies. Registration |